Analysis of the plate market in the first half of 2020
More than half of 2020 has passed. June brings the breath of summer to the face. The market price of plate has also awakened from the ice pool at the beginning of the year. It turned and plunged into the heat wave of June. Supported by low inventory, the market price of plate Maintain an upward trend.
In 2020, the price center of plate will continue to move downwards. As of June 16, 2020, the average price of plate in the national market is 3846.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.9 yuan/ton from the same period last year, a decline of 2.16%. From the end of January to the beginning of February 2020, most of the merchants were closed due to the conflict of public health incidents, and the market opened about half a month later than last year. The entire incident swept the world, both to China and to the world. An immeasurable loss. The lowest point in the first half of the year was on March 22. The average market price that day was 3,632.35 yuan/ton, which was 214.4 yuan/ton from the highest point. The public health incident caused a short-term “shock” blow to various industries. The downstream construction of the plate has been severely hindered, and the industrial manufacturing industry has been severely affected. In the short term, the failure of industry and trade to recover will affect my country’s upstream and downstream manufacturing industries. Form a pinch effect. Prices of the entire bulk market have entered a downward trend. In mid-to-late February, the price stopped falling and stabilized, and the economy began to recover. The plate price fluctuated for two months, and the price began to show signs of rising. In the entire plate industry chain, the plate is considered The main reason for the most resistant product should be analyzed from the supply and demand side.
Monthly production of plate
In February, the national plate production was the lowest, and the operating rate of the 14 plate production enterprises in the northern region of the plate (North China, Northeast and Northwest Region) was 92.9%. In the southern region of the plate (East China, South-Central and Southwest Region), 23 plate manufacturers have a total of 37 plate rolling lines, with a rolling line operating rate of 83.78% and a capacity utilization rate of 88.17%. At the time of the public health incident, the long-process enterprises were not significantly affected, and the operating rates were all above 80%. In the later period, Tangshan promulgated the air quality enhancement plan and the convening of the two sessions, which benefited the bulk market to a certain extent, but the steel mills have limited production and did not have a substantial impact on the output. Most steel mills are producing at full capacity.
The highest point of plate inventory in 2020 is in March when the public health incident is the most serious. The highest value reached 1.493 million tons, which is 556,300 tons higher than the lowest value of inventory. One of the key factors causing inventory backlog is poor logistics and the delay of downstream start-ups. The steel mills mainly affect the start of short-process enterprises, while most of the long-process enterprises are still in continuous production. This year’s fall and winter production restriction policy has been slightly relaxed, the profits of superimposed steel mills have recovered, and the blast furnace is almost at full capacity. On February 2, 2020, plate inventories rapidly increased by 192,000 tons within a week, an increase of 18.59%. The turning point came in April. With the recovery of the downstream, the amount of steel used has also risen, and the inventory has dropped continuously. As of June 12, the inventory has dropped to 1.0446 million tons. The current market arrival situation has improved. The northern market The inventory is more abundant than in the south. The south is mostly the first-tier steel mills, which produce less medium and heavy plates. The shortage of specifications and grades is particularly obvious. The decline in inventory is also an important reason for the support of plate prices.
The current plate market transactions are generally in the off-season of demand and the southern rainy season. Demand and transportation are important factors affecting prices. Prices will enter a stalemate of “not going up or falling down.” Overall, the market is still in a relatively stalemate stage of the long-short game. In the later period, the supply of goods in the southern market will be gradually replenished, the price support point will be weak, the spread between the north and the south will gradually narrow, and the overall increase will be small.